Year-over-Year Record and Buy low, Sell high
Posted by Andrei Pandre under Qlikview
Tableau Software (symbol DATA) did something that nobody or almost nobody in BI and/or Data Visualization (DV) field did before with this or larger size of Revenue. Tableau in their last Quarter of 2013 Fiscal Year (reported last week) increased their Year-over-Year Ratio for both Quarterly accounting (95%) and Yearly accounting (82%, way above all DV and BI competitors) while dramatically increased their Revenue to $232M per Year, see it here: http://investors.tableausoftware.com/investor-news/investor-news-details/2014/Tableau-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2013-Financial-Results/default.aspx.
You can compare on diagram below the growth of 3 competitors over last 6 years (2008-2013, Spotfire sales unavailable since TIBCO (symbol TIBX) bought it): BI veteran Microstrategy (bluish line slowing down last 2+ years), largest DV vendor Qliktech (symbol QLIK, red line, decreasing Year-over-Year growth) and fastest growing DV Vendor Tableau (yellow line with Record Year-over-Year growth):
Tableau stock was and is overpriced since its IPO (e.g. today EPS is -0.19 and P/E ratio is very high, see it here: http://ycharts.com/companies/DATA/pe_ratio). If you follow Warren Buffet (Buy Low, Sell High), today is a good day to sell a DATA stock, unless you intend to hold it for long or forever. However many people ignore Warren and volume of buying for last few days was above average (780K for DATA) and above 1 million shares per day (e.g. on 2/5/14 it was 4.4M of shares). On OpenInsider you can find at least 2 people, who agreed with Warren and sold during last few days 700000 Tableau’s shares for total $62M+ (guess who it can be? Chris and Christian – part of 1% since 5/17/13 IPO…):
As the result, the $DATA (Tableau’s Symbol) jumped up $10+ from already overvalued share price to $97+ after 2/14/14, today it added $5 (click on image below to enlarge it) to share price and keeps going up:
BY end of 2/14/14 Tableau’s Market Capitalization went over $5.96B, twice more then Qliktech’s MarketCap (which is almost the same as a year ago) and $2B more then TIBCO’s MarketCap (which is almost the same as a year ago)! Basically, Tableau’s MarketCap as of end of trading day today is almost the same as combined MarketCap of QLIK and TIBX.
For me the more important indicator of company’s growth is a “HRI” (Hiring Rate Indicator as the ratio of the number of open positions to the number of Full-Time employees of the company). As of today, Tableau has 216 job openings (current estimate is has about 1100 employees), Qliktech has 101 openings (while employed 1700 people) and Spotfire has about 34 open positions (current estimate of number of Spotfire Employees is difficult because it is completely inside TIBCO, but probably still below 500). It means that Tableau’s HRI is 19.6%, Qliktech’s HRI is 5.9% and Spotfire’s HRI is below 6.8%.